#THINKING IN BETS HOW TO#
#THINKING IN BETS FULL#

'Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life.' -Philip E. 'An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn't work.' -Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge

#THINKING IN BETS FULL#

'Duke's discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. 'Outstanding.' -Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Recommend for people operating in the real world.' -Marc Andreessen ' A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital. 'A big favorite among investors these days.' - The New York Times You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making.

But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes, and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

For most people, it's difficult to say 'I'm not sure' in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets- How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there's always information hidden from view. Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time.

#THINKING IN BETS HOW TO#

Poker champion turned decision strategist Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions. A Wall Street Journal bestseller, now in paperback.

Thinking in bets